Let the purges start! Russian army leaders discover themselves discarded

Russian sources on Telegram are reporting that Russian Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu and Military Chief of the Normal Employees Valery Gerasimov have each been faraway from their roles. In line with the channel for the Wagner mercenary group, that is straight associated to the explosion which closely broken the Kerch Bridge connecting the Crimea Oblast in Ukraine with Russia.

This may increasingly or will not be true. Nevertheless, simply the truth that Russia’s army management is publicly squabbling over management and who’s responsible for the failures in Ukraine demonstrates simply how on edge everybody in Moscow is that this weekend.

Although quite a lot of candidates for substitute have been mentioned, it’s not clear simply who’s answerable for the Russian military at this second if Shoigu is definitely out. Simply hours in the past, Shoigu formally named Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the brand new total commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. It’s unclear if this choice will maintain within the face of Shoigu’s elimination. These reported actions observe different stories from Moscow on Saturday that items of the Russian Federation Guards have been stopping site visitors and making “a number of arrests, detainments and blockings of army.” Then others reported this wasn’t occurring. Then others mentioned it actually was.

It’s all gloriously unclear. The fog of battle on the battlefield is one factor, however that is the fug of failure spreading out throughout all of Russia’s army management and triggering a life or dying recreation of musical chairs. What’s to not like?

This would appear to counsel that, along with blowing up the bridge, the explosion — nevertheless it was achieved — is being felt inside the partitions of the Kremlin. Shoigu has lengthy been a detailed confidant of Vladimir Putin, and has held a number of roles in Putin’s regime. Regardless of being three years youthful than Putin, stories have indicated that Shoigu was reportedly to be “retired” this fall. The bridge bombing seems to have accelerated the schedule, and to have made this entire factor much less “right here’s your gold watch, have enjoyable on the yacht” and extra “come over right here and take have a look at this window.”

Whereas stories proceed to color this as an acceleration of already deliberate personnel modifications, and the entire thing could show to itself be propaganda (These are Russian sources speaking about Russian politics, the chances that somebody is mistaken or mendacity appears near 100%). Nevertheless, assuming that is true, it appears to symbolize a brand new stage of chaos for a army whose current mobilization blunders have solely served to underscore the failures of the final seven months.

For the final three days, preventing in northern Kherson has been principally confined to a zone alongside a line that was Russia’s fallback to their fallback. The northwest finish of that line is bolstered by a sequence of cities that have been initially a part of Russia’s second line, and have been additional fortified after Ukraine established a bridgehead throughout the Inhulets River. 

During the last two days, the stories of Ukrainian forces being current and of lively preventing underway have ranged throughout an space 10 to 20km extensive, however most indications are that the onerous preventing continues to be occurring up alongside the road from Bruskynske to Borozenske to Mylove. Russia has plenty of forces in Kherson, and proper now plenty of them are crowded into this space. There’s little or no cowl for both aspect, and nearly no topography to talk of.

Not solely is Ukraine probing for weaknesses, however Russia is doing the identical. Russian forces reportedly struck out from Ishchenka towards Davydiv Brid on Friday, apparently to shock Ukraine as they tried to work round to the south. It doesn’t appear to have labored.

On Saturday, it appears clear that Ukraine has prolonged their management to the south and opened that unique pocket to incorporate Shchaslyve. However there don’t appear to be present stories of preventing at both Stepove or Kalynivske, so Ukraine will not be pushing on this path proper now.

As an alternative, Saturday has introduced a number of stories that Ukraine has liberated Bruskynske. This data was very confidently delivered when it was first acknowledged on Telegram. Nevertheless, it’s been 12 hours since these first statements and there’s no affirmation from dependable sources. In their very own official bulletins as we speak, Russia claimed to have repelled all assaults on Ishchenka,  Sadok, and Bezymennoye, however didn’t point out Bruskynske. Which might be type of a backdoor admission.

This city might slip again into the yellow, however for the second it appears a good guess that Ukraine has management.

Transferring to the north, there was motion in a number of locations alongside the road, although every thing appears just about the identical round Kreminna and alongside that path to Svatove.

The change is on to the west of Svatove, the place it appears that evidently Ukrainan forces have liberated the cities of Lozove and Stelmakhivka. This map is probably going a bit conservative, as a result of they’ve most likely liberated Zelenyi Hai, as effectively. This represents not simply one other location the place Ukraine is pushing nearer to Svatove, however one other level at which they’ve driving Russia fully throughout the road from Kharkiv Oblast into Luhansk. At 20km from Svakove, Stelmakhivka might be the closest level between Ukrainian forces and the Russian transport hub.

One other principle on what introduced the bridge down. On this principle, ATACMS punched proper by the highway deck earlier than exploding. 

I nonetheless suppose boat is a possible reply. As a result of whereas I don’t suppose truck bomb matches with the explosion, I feel it took a truck load of explosives to do that.

Russia is working this video which supposedly exhibits a check prepare heading out to make the journey, slowly, throughout the Kerch Bridge. Nevertheless, I nonetheless don’t purchase it. Not one picture of the scene up to now has demonstrated that Russia has been capable of take away the prepare which burned. A few of that metallic might be nonetheless too sizzling to the touch. That Russia would enable a creeping few automobiles to cross the wrinkled remaining automobile lane? Sure. That they’ll in some way get throughout the prepare bridge at this level? No.