Meals and farming – Delivering science to our stakeholders

Met Workplace science helps UK farmers put together for a altering local weather. This work contains quite a lot of ‘Local weather Companies’ that are funded by Defra (Division for Setting, Meals and Rural Affairs), in addition to different tasks.

Why do we have to adapt UK agriculture to a altering local weather?

The UK Local weather Projections (UKCP) present us that the UK is prone to expertise ‘hotter, drier summers and hotter, wetter winters’, in addition to a rise in excessive rainfall occasions. These altering situations imply that we have to adapt to our altering local weather, together with within the agriculture sector. Adaptation is motion that reduces or overcomes local weather change impacts which might be already occurring or will occur. One instance of adaptation within the agriculture sector could possibly be constructing shelter for cattle in order that they are often shaded throughout excessive heatwaves, lowering the probability of cattle warmth stress.

The Local weather Change Committee’s (CCC) Impartial Evaluation of UK Local weather Threat report (2021), which makes use of UKCP projections, identifies local weather change as one of many biggest dangers to the UK meals sector. The CCC’s Recommendation Report units out 61 particular local weather change dangers and alternatives within the UK which ought to be thought of within the subsequent 5 years. It additionally highlights eight precedence danger areas needing pressing additional motion over the subsequent two years. Two out of eight of those precedence danger areas relate to UK meals: ‘dangers to crop, livestock and industrial bushes from a number of local weather hazards’ and ‘dangers to provide of meals, items and important providers as a result of climate-related collapse of provide chains and distribution networks.’

Examples of Met Workplace analysis on meals and farming

The Defra-funded Met Workplace local weather service on Meals, Farming and Pure Setting focuses on the impacts of local weather change on farming, with the intention of informing policymakers on the longer term adaptation wanted within the farming sector. This includes shut collaboration with Defra and informs coverage and motion by Defra’s 3-yearly UK Meals Safety Report and contributions to the Nationwide Adaptation Plan. The local weather service additionally has robust hyperlinks to the UK’s International Meals Safety Programme.

Our Plant Pest and Illness work explores the local weather sensitivities of UK plant pests and ailments. Pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species current critical dangers to agricultural productiveness, with penalties for livelihoods and companies. Massive-scale outbreaks or invasions may additionally have ramifications for meals safety. Local weather change is rising the danger of impacts from pests and pathogens, as a result of hotter and wetter situations particularly within the winter months. For instance, hotter temperatures end in elevated over-winter survival charges of pests.

This work additionally appears to reinforce emergency response to pests and ailments utilizing local weather and climate information. A serious output of the venture has been the event of an online instrument for estimating precedence pest emergence. The pest net emergence instrument (developed in collaboration with companions from Defra, Fera Science, College of Exeter and College of Warwick) makes use of gridded local weather information and pest-climate relationships to offer estimates of when microclimate situations is likely to be appropriate for identified, invasive plant pests. Steerage on the way to use the instrument may be discovered right here.

Our Meals Safety work has explored the impacts of adjusting climate and local weather extremes throughout the UK meals system. Climate hazards affecting the UK meals system embody low rainfall and drought, wind, storms and storm surges, excessive rainfall and flooding, and heatwaves and sizzling extremes. The incidence and severity of those hazards is anticipated to worsen with rising local weather change. While the impacts of local weather change on main manufacturing (e.g., drought resulting in crop failure) are comparatively effectively studied, there’s much less work different elements of the meals chain. For instance, elevated incidence of heatwaves will influence upon workforces within the processing and packaging a part of the meals chain, while rising storms will influence upon transport and infrastructure programs. Work achieved within the Met Workplace (Falloon et al., 2022 – What do altering climate and local weather shocks and stresses imply for the UK meals system? – IOPscience) is exploring local weather change impacts on all these elements of the meals chain to assist inform UK Authorities determination making.

One other instance of Met Workplace work regarding meals and farming is a UK Local weather Resilience (UKCR) programme-funded venture wanting into future local weather dangers from compound occasions (Garry et al., 2021 – Future local weather danger to UK agriculture from compound occasions | Semantic Scholar).

Compound occasions occur when two or extra climate/local weather hazards happen concurrently or in shut succession, doubtlessly inflicting larger impacts than when the hazards happen alone. Future projections present UK-wide will increase within the frequency and period of thermal warmth stress in dairy cattle and potato blight occasions. This research makes use of the UKCP regional projections to look at the impact of local weather change on the dairy and potato farming sectors over the subsequent thirty to fifty years (2051-2070). You’ll be able to learn extra on this research on our web site.

These tasks display only a few examples of the methods during which the Met Workplace delivers science on meals and farming to our stakeholders. We now have been sharing extra on the subject of local weather and alter and meals safety on our social media channels this month, so in the event you’d like to seek out out extra comply with #GetClimateReady on Twitter.